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h1. Tom's most recent comments and long term dividend growth Dara are inside this site for subscribers. Comments
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“The key is to wait for the market to decline and to pick companies with the best likelihood of maintaining their dividends” Martin D. Weiss, The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide. TC: Notice his fifth word: there is a lot of waiting with the dividend growth strategy. Valuation is everything. Arnold Bernhard's 1959 book Evaluation of Common Stocks talking about valuation at the time of purchase on page 121. (When I get a jiff, I'll add it here.) The bigger question is: when do you know the market has declined? That's a tough one. One of my guides it yield. I plot yield data.
group! —- * WARNING about ETFs: By definition, index ETFs can't win. This was proved again beginning on February 24th 2020 ETFs will, going forward, most likely lose again. Returns are determined by valuation: the price you pay to get in. Funds lost the last time the market was high. From 2000 to early 2009 the TSX gained only 0.74% a year. . . less than 1% a year. Over about the same decade, however, the CAGR* for dividend growth stocks was 9.6%. You do not buy an index ETF when the market is high. *compound annual growth rate In 2008, the market was high. From 2008 to 2018, dividend growth on the stock the Connolly Report follows was 9.0%. In the same period, the TSE was up only 1.6%. ♣ There are stocks in the index that do not pay a dividend, let alone raise their dividends. Where will your retirement income come from? Yields on ETFs are low. If you buy a stock that does not pay a dividend, you are betting someone else will pay a higher price than you did. Your savings are sacred: don't let someone who has no skin in the game, play with your money. Learn to do it yourself. —- This investor likes a lot of dividend growth stocks: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/retiree-prefers-blue-chip-dividend-stocks-over-bonds-and-gics/article24348328/ * Most investors do not know, let alone believe, that as the dividend rises the price of the stock will also rise. Think. If a company is throwing off more cash each year (dividends), it's more valuable. Inside this site I prove this in many ways. Here is just one example from Burton Crane's 1959 book (The Sopisticated Investor, page 13) If an investor had put $10,000 into each of the various 101 NYSE stocks in 1913, by 1953 the dividend received would have been $10,140,258. What had the price of the stock grown to? $10,141,731. As the dividends grow, so does the price of the shares! * ETFs allow so-called 'wealth managers', who know nothing about proper investing, to build a portfolio with a click or two. Ludicrous! I hold individual companies with a long record of increasing dividends. ♣ Here's another reason I never buy an ETF: AIMCo. It seems one of Alberta's pension traders lost some $2.1 billion in trades linked to volatility. AIMCo executives have been fired. Money manages toe the line. Portfolios are all too similar. If the managers don't conform and lose, they're out. We, as a result, with individual portfolios can win by selecting a few the best dividend growth companies and not adding scores of poor quality stocks. Linked just below is a rather good item (May 23 2011) about reasons to buy and hold dividend growth stocks: http://seekingalpha.com/article/271326-9-real-world-reasons-to-own-dividend-growth-stocks?source=from_friend ——— * Living from dividends in retirement WSJ_May10 * *
