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The Connolly Report (since 1981) is no longer printed. It's a blog. Four or so pages a month with scores of ideas, links, yield and dividend data (going back decades) about dividend growth investing. Summaries of printed reports over the last decade are here report summaries

why_dg_oct_2016.pdf Dividend Growth Investing

  • How can it be? How can a dividend increase affect the price of a stock? Especially if it's only a cent or two. It's unbelievably simple: an investment that produces more income becomes more valuable. Metro's dividend in 2019, for instance, increased from 18¢ to 20¢. That's up 11%. Do you believe that MRU's price will rise by 11% also? It will. The proof, developed over decades, is inside. Another: BMO's dividend went from $3.78 to $4 this year: up 7.3%. As a result, BMO's price will rise too. Year after year wealth/capital builds.
  • Dividend growth investors focus on the income their assets produce. Over the years, in aggregate, our dividends grow. From January 2008, the 24 Connolly Report dividend growth stocks grew 8.6% a year. The 2008 yield was 3.2%, so our return was 11.8%. Very few income funds grow their distributions. Dividend growth investors do not have to depend upon the size of the pot to fund our retirement. And here's the real bounty: our pot keeps growing as retirement progresses driven by dividend increases. A company that provides more income is more valuable: so, it's price rises too. It's not only true, but common sense. You can still join our group.
  • The December 2019 blog inside this site - At the top of the December blog page is the annual summary spreadsheet - 32 companies showing year-by-year dividends for a decade across the page. And, on the left side is the average 2009 price, on the right site in the late 2019 price. This allows us to show CAGR for dividends over the ten years and CAGR for price for the same ten years. This data exposes the secret of dividend growth investing. It is there in plain sight with an 80% correlation: dividend growth of the 32 companies was an average 8.2% a year, price growth was 8.6%. You can easily pick out the winners (top of list) and the losers at the bottom. $50 for access to this PDF and ten years of Connolly Reports (back to 2009) . . . to me in Kingston or our daughter in Toronto.


  • Setting up a portfolio yourself: (Rob Carrick, Nov 14 2019)

I would suggest that you do not want or need an advisor (certainly not a robo advisor) to set up a portfolio for you. Advisors, knowing little about investing, will put you into ETFs (a lot of mediocre securities providing little income). To build wealth, you must learn to set up a portfolio yourself. It is easy. There are close to a thousand ETFs. There are only a few score of good dividend growing companies. I use TULF to select a Telecom stock (with recurring income); a Utility that has decades of consecutive dividend increase (your retirement income); a Lower yield stable, food retail stock and a Financial (any big bank). Rob Carrick wrote about TULF in November of 2016:

♦ Feb 5 2020 * Wealth Management - When you hold * individual stocks in a discount brokerage account, there are no on-going annual charges. The banks and other financial intermediaries do not make money on your money. For the financial institutions, this is not good. As a result, they had do to something to generate fees, for doing, essentially, nothing! They invented a contrivance: ETFs. The banks now even discourage you from buying individual stocks. * HOLD! And I mean hold. You must understand why dividend growth investors hold. With each dividend increase, our yield grows. The company becomes more valuable. So, logically, the firm's stock price must increase. Move from being a dividend investor to a dividend growth investor. You can't build wealth with a dividend ETF. They are packed with higher yield dividend stocks. The managers have forgotten that return = yield + growth. Yield alone does not do it. Here is evidence from 12 companies that shows as the dividend goes, so does the price (from 2008 to 2018). And this period, notice, contains the financial crisis.

  • The purpose of data, charts and comments inside this site to assist subscribers to set up and run a dividend growth portfolio for themselves; a portfolio to deliver growing income in retirement (up 8.2% in 2019) This information is, unfortunately, not free. It is unbiased, though and built on close to 40 years of experience. Refer to the About Us page for details. Join our group.

WARNING! Be aware that the valuation of the market at the point when you buy into an index ETF significantly determines the return you will return. The N.Y. market made a new highs in late 2019. What's next? The market has been going up for years. It is a foolish time to buy. Exercise restraint! Wait for better prices. ETFs, know, are essentially cattle class ante: no service, no fiduciary duty, clutches of mediocre stocks and you still pay annual fees. For what? A couple of clicks by someone who knows little about real investing because they have been infected by modern portfolio theory.

  • After a decade or so, quality dividend growth stocks provide yields which outpace the TSX and that's without factoring in appreciation in the stock price. Learn about this inside. The entry fee is $50. Alternatively, read Building Wealth with Dividend Stocks by Joseph Tigue or ♣ Your Growing Income by Henry Mah. You'll be tens of thousands of dollars ahead. We are hundreds of thousands ahead having started at the turn of the century. If you are not disciplined and patient, forget it and index with an over-diversified ETF full of mediocre issues. Quality does it, holding does it. Facts about dividend, as the dividend goes so does the price, say, do not cease to exist because one ignores them.

EXAMPLE: August 2019 Connolly Report Blog summary: 2019 dividend growth update ♣ Berkshire's prime goal is … ♣ portfolio selections . . . ♣ two stocks mentioned . . ♣ Is refuge in bonds needed now? ♣ Keynes on portfolio construction ♣ What did Buffett says to concentrate on in his 2019 Letter? What's his prime goal in deploying Berkshire's capital? ♣ What the average rate of dividend growth since the war? ♣ With our yield growing each year, what kind of yield can you expect after a decade? And our capital grows at the same rate, right (no question mark) Why?♣ Why the 4% Rule is bunk for us? What's wealth? ♣ Portfolio Spending Rate (four paragraphs of comment on AAII Journal).

Inside you will learn:

  • that as the dividend grows, so will the price of your quality rising dividend company. We constantly compare dividend growth and price growth. The correlation, according to Ned Davis Research is over 80% after a decade or so. It's truly amazing! For instance, Empire's dividend was 4¢ a share in 1997. Now the dividend is 46¢, up 11.7% a year. This drove the price from $3.05 to $37 a share, up 12% CAGR. Do your saving grow at 12% a year?
  • Discover that ETFs allow advisors, who know little about investing, to play with the hard-earned money of savers using the faulty concepts of modern portfolio theory: over–diversification, beta and market efficency.
  • Inside you will learn how to scrap just about the entire methodology of modern portfolio theory and return to the timeless principles of investing. Take your sacred savings out of the hands of middlemen who have no skin in your game.
  • Oct 1st 2019 - a short essay on the inferior performance of professionals . . . you'd never believe why most pros can't beat the index. It's why I do not buy ETFs.
  • how to select the few quality companies you need to build wealth.
  • discover the value of yield data . . . yields send signals
  • that the real goal of advisors is not aligned with yours
  • why ETFs are hawked on low fees and what's essentially wrong with ETFs
  • that yield alone does not move the needle. What does?
  • how a 'greater dividend return' (growth) lowers uncertainty
  • why not to be sold preferreds or bonds
  • the calculation to do before buying a stock
  • from year-by-year dividend data sheets (not just a five average) going back to the turn of the century for 35 companies
  • seven characteristics of any investment
  • asset allocation in May 2019 blog
  • obtain proof that returns are determined by valuation
  • Philip Fisher's ideas on lower-yield but higher-dividend growth companies
  • why we don't buy bonds . . . since 1979, on $100,000, bonds earned just $1.6 million, equities returned $7.5 million
  • how quality stocks become safer than bonds (W. Buffett 1918)
  • Ideas and opinions expressed in this blog should not be taken as any type of guidance.

Join the winning group!


By definition, index ETFs can't win. And, as the market is high just now (early 2020 ) the Dow over 28,000 for the first time ever) ETFs will, going forward, most likely lose again. Returns are determined by valuation! Funds certainly lost the last time the market was high. From 2000 to early 2009 the TSX gained only 0.74% a year. . . less than 1% a year. Over about the same decade, however, the CAGR* for dividend growth stocks was 9.6%. You do not buy an index ETF when the market is high. *compound annual growth rate In 2008, the market was high. From 2008 to 2018, dividend growth on the stock the Connolly Report follows was 9.0%. In the same period, the TSE was up only 1.6%. ♣ There are stocks in the index that do not pay a dividend, let alone raise their dividends. Where will your retirement income come from? Yields on ETFs are low. If you buy a stock that does not pay a dividend, you are betting someone else will pay a higher price than you did.

This investor likes a lot of dividend growth stocks:

Martin Mittelstaedt's June 15 2012 column in the Report on Business discussed the cost of a dollar's worth of dividends. “Behind rising dividend yields, a hidden warning for [the] economy”.

Most investors do not know, let alone believe, that as the dividend rises the price of the stock will also rise. Think. If a company is throwing off more cash each year (dividends), it's more valuable. Inside this site I prove this in many ways. Here is just one example from Burton Crane's 1959 book (The Sopisticated Investor, page 13) If an investor had put $10,000 into each of the various 101 NYSE stocks in 1913, by 1953 the dividend received would have been $10,140,258. What had the price of the stock grown to? $10,141,731. As the dividends grow, so does the price of the shares!

  • ETFs allow so-called 'wealth managers', who know nothing about proper investing, to build a portfolio with a click or two. Ludicrous! I hold individual companies with a long record of increasing dividends.

Linked just below is a rather good item (May 23 2011) about reasons to buy and hold dividend growth stocks:

  • DGDPG2013 - An example of how dividend growth drives price growth…
  • Living from dividends in retirement WSJ_May10
  • A few items down under Evidence it Works , I've keyed a paragraph and link to a Fortune column about dividend growth investing - November 1990 - Income, my true love…
  • Yield on Cost: If you bought 1000 shares of Toromont in 2005, your yield on the cost then would now be 2.9%. No big deal, eh! However, if you purchased 1000 shares of Toromont ten years ago for $8,130 your yield on cost would now be 7.4%. That's not bad. Now, if you had bought the 1000 shares of Toromont back in 1990 for $750 your would have received close to $4000 in dividends over the 20 years, be earning 80% on your original investment and had 536% of your original investment paid back with the dividends. Twenty years is a long time, but WOW look what your $750 would be earning now. In addition, you'd have a capital gain of…well work it out. What is the price of a share of TIH now. Multiply by 1000. And you bought 1,000 shares for $750. Maybe you had better investigate dividend growth investing. Data courtesy of MacDougall, MacDougall and MacTier

What I do, in a sentence:

When they are “sensibly” priced, I buy dividend-growing common stock and hold them and hold them for the rising income/yield.

When they are value priced, I buy common* shares of companies with a good record of dividend growth and hold them for the rising income. In 2008 our dividend income rose in spite of the turmoil by 9.9%. Did your income rise by 10% last year. Our income will be up again in 2010 too. Our retirement plan is working. It's not the value of the capital that's so important, it's the income it generates…tax advantaged income…secure income. Except for Telus in 2002, the last time there was a dividend reduction in a stock in my list, other than Manulife in early August 2009, was during the last century (TRP Dec '99). Before that: NA and RYL in 1992. Dividend reductions from good dividend growers are rare events.

Since 1981…every two months for 30 years . . .

* I've never bought preferred shares, or bonds or mutual funds.

The Connolly Report, about dividend growth stocks, by Tom Connolly (B. Comm, 1964) was published continuously every two months since 1981. Now the actual printed report is over. The on-line blog and dividend growth data, inside this site, should continue into 2020 for a bit at least. That would begin our 40th year.

Wisdom: ”“The single factor that drives investor success is not picking winning firms, but rather the entry point at which the firms are purchased.” I forget the attribution of this gem.

The Investment Zoo by Stephen Jarislowsky - the best Canadian general investment book ever. Unfortunately, The Investment Zoo is out of print (Oct 2014).

Lowell Miller's The Single Best Investment - Creating Wealth with Dividend Growth is the best book on dividend growth investing…though with American examples. A book report is inside this site for subscribers.

Building Wealth with Dividend Stocks by Joseph Tigue (he worked for S&P for years…they have the data) is also a great book on dividend investing, but again it's American data. Nine of Tigue's pages are worth the price of the book. Chapter 5 is the best. The essence of dividend growth investing is outlined in the middle of page 66 of Building wealth with Dividend Stocks. I prepared a book report for subscribers: it's inside this site.

  • Guelph - our daughter was born here in 1968 - a photo


home.1580938366.txt.gz · Last modified: 2020/02/05 16:32 by tom
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