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+ | Guelph seminar May 28 2015 - Food Sciences Building at the university 7:30 p.m. | ||
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+ | * {{cnr_yield_99-15.pdf|}} Sorry. This chart is crooked and I forgot to pass this around, but this CNR yield chart back to 1999 shows that as the dividend rises (hand-writtne across the bottom) the yield essentially stays the same. So, the price must be rising too. And it did. | ||
+ | * {{dg_summard_2015_12.pdf|}} - my one page summary of dividend growth investing | ||
+ | * The reverse side of this DG summary sheet was the front page of the March 2015 Connolly Report where I wrote about what to do when interest rates are so very low and stock prices so very high. | ||
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+ | * Seminar introduction: | ||
+ | * 1) | ||
+ | * 2) bottom of this page | ||
+ | * 3) | ||
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+ | ===== "Since the market value in most cases has depended __primarily__ upon the dividend rate, the latter could be held responsible for nearly all of the gains ultimately realized by investors." | ||
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+ | This is a quote from Ben Graham' | ||
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+ | * John Maynard Keynes maintained that investment is “forecasting the prospective yield of an asset over its entire life”. That's what dividend growth investors try to do. In contrast, speculation is trying to forecast the market. | ||
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+ | I also wrote BCE on the board with 4.7% beside it (BCE's yield) + plus + (the plus sign) T's dividend growth rate 5%. I could have used Telus as the example (or RCI.B). TIFF was on the board too and Touff, and, as Dr Dave Stanley was with me, TURF. We start portfolios with a telecom stock...the initial yield is good and there is solid dividend growth backed by recurring income. People give these companies money each month. The stocks are safe when you buy at a sensible price. Sure the price of these stocks fluctuate. Bond prices fluctuate too. People think bonds are safe. It's the growing income we're after. The security of the income is what's important. | ||
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+ | **BONDIFIED** - Here's another example of dividend growth with a slightly different slant. I call it ' | ||
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+ | A final short example for dividend growth from 1983, a bank, where the dividend now ($2,000) equals the amount invested in 1983 ($2,000). Message: start saving for your retirement early. | ||
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+ | When speaking about holding onto good dividend-growing stocks for year and years, I forgot to mention that average holding period for mutual funds is eight months. Managers, it seems have not read the paper " | ||
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+ | From 5¢ - Here are other stocks I could have used for the 'from about 5¢' example: | ||
+ | * CNR in 1996 (CAGR 18% from a dime in 1999) | ||
+ | * Saputo in 1998 | ||
+ | * Metro in 2000 | ||
+ | * CNQ 2001 | ||
+ | * Richelieu in 2002 | ||
+ | * Shaw Communications 2002 | ||
+ | * Home Capital from 2004 | ||
+ | * RCI.B 2005 | ||
+ | * CMG Computer Modelling 2006 to .37 (split in 2013) | ||
+ | * ESL (Enghouse) in 2007 | ||
+ | * Ensign Energy Services in 2007 | ||
+ | * CAE in 2008 | ||
+ | * ATD.B at .0567 in 2010 (after 2013 split) $21.50 | ||
+ | * Loblaw had a five cents dividend in 1985 | ||
+ | * BNS was a nickel in 1974, RY 5¢ in 1970. | ||
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+ | Question? How can you identify this 5¢ dividend stocks in advance? Answer: You can't. They do not really exist (except for RCI in 2005). I find stocks for our portfolios by searching for common stocks with a good record of dividend growth. Then, as a teaching tool example to show the ramifications of a growing dividend, I find out when the splits were and work the dividend (and price) backwards to five cents. | ||
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+ | Question? How many stocks in a portfolio. Mine has five, Louise has eight and her sister (in trust), ten stocks. Mostly TIFF and TOUFF...with the ' | ||
+ | * Yardie - I used a little prop to illustrate return ultimately being yield (yellow) plus dividend growth (blue) plus or minus a valuation factor (red). Its name is Yardie...a free range chicken. My talk was, after all, in the Food Sciences building. Anyway, if you cover up the small red portion (Yardie' | ||
+ | * I mentioned my neighbour' | ||
+ | * ? Some of you are thinking that it's a company' | ||
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+ | seminar summary - dividends matter - dividend growth drives price growth - concatenate yield and dividend growth | ||
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+ | Questions: What's the name of the stock? Why this stock? Is the stock a good buy now? What are the names of other stocks like this? | ||
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