May 26 2009 BNN Market Call
On May 26, at Toronto East General, a brother for our grandchild Julia: Zachariah at just over 8 lbs (4.05). Another education savings plan with a few dividend growth common stocks will begin. All are well.
The Top Picks of BNN's Market Call in the Report on Business of May 26, 2009 were three stocks I follow: Shoppers Drug Mart $43.88, CN Rail $46.02, BCE Inc $24.57. I find it interesting what the 'recommenders' are able to say about their top picks in just two or three sentences in these small columns. About SC: “The stock has lagged the rally due to its perceived defensive nature.” This is also true for some other non-financial stocks in my list. They (utility-type stocks) have yields which have not been higher in years. Investors get excited about certain sectors now and then and perfectly good commons are left by the way side. About CNR Bruce Campbell said; “The stock has underperformed lately and trades below its historical multiple.” TC: Well of course it has, there's a serious recession about. The question is how long will the recession last. When will trade recover? Elsewhere in the May 26 Report on Business that question was addressed by a roundtable panel. The title was 'It's a punctuation point in history' not just a recession: Don Tapscott. And finally BCE. “The stock has been depressed by Ontario Teachers'Pension Plan's sale of 30 million plus shares.” TC: If Teachers' is selling, should I buy, is my thought? Mr Campbell, president of Campbell and Lee Investment Management, ended his spot with three positive points about BCE. (On this score, I was reading another chapter in The Money Makers last week at the cottage. It's a book by Johnathan Davies about very successful money managers in the U.K. Anyway, this one chap, before he buys a stock, lists all the things about the company he does not like. It's a good idea. DBRS reports point out this type of thing too.)
What I have found most fascinating about these BNN Market columns in recent months is how well these professional's picks, made a year ago, have done*. I certainly do not wish to single our Mr Campbell, but generally the answer is: the professionals did not do well. Last March [2008] Lehman Bros 'failed'. The author of a book about Lehman's demise was on The Current yesterday (we love Anna Maria). Stock prices fell last Spring [2008]. What we did not realize at the time (and I include myself, as I purchased a couple of stocks too early too) was the depth of the credit crisis and how solid dividend stocks fell with the chaff. More scat hit the fan in the Fall of 2008. I think there is more to come. I'm being cautious. Still, these are some good, non-financial stocks will solid and growing dividends available at fair prices. The ones which held well last Fall are weakening now. What to do, eh! Today we are not concerning ourselves with stocks: we are celebrating…our daughter comes home with Zach…Trius Canadian sparkling wine is on tap. I'm doing dinner starting with vichyssoisse sprinkled with fresh chives from the garden.
*Only as a matter of encouragement in your stock selection and to make you feel, perhaps, somewhat better after a bad year in 2008, the picks of the manager above last year were down -32%, -23% and -36% a year later. The selections of the manager mentioned below (May 20th) were below too at -6%, -49% and -48% a year later. The Power Corp shares I added to my own portfolio last year are below water as I key this too, but the dividend is firm. Dividends, generally, are more secure than prices and less volatile than earnings. May 28th picks of a year ago are down -59%, -10%, -53%…and they say professionals do better.
On May 20 2009, BNN's Market Call column had three stocks I follow mentioned by David Baskin: TransCanada (“a stable base in pipeline operations and power generation”), BCE Inc (“has become a much more efficient company”), and Canadian Utilities (“a very steady business model”). But, think outside the box: this column runs four days a week, and picks three stocks a day or over 600 choices a year. How many will be winners? (BNN presents Market Call live at 12:30 Eastern; 9:30 Pacific. I've never seen it: we seldom watch television.