Third Quarter 2013

How dividend growth investors are different:

♣ Dividend growth investors focus on the income our retirement pot throws off, not the size of the pot. Ours is a whole different way of thinking. We can ignore volatility: price fluctuations really do not matter. If prices fall, we can buy more income. We like bear markets! We think of our common stocks as infinite-duration bonds with rising coupons…long term holds.

♣ It's not so much which dividend growth stock you buy, but the price you pay for them that's important. And notice, it's dividend growth we are after, not just yield. Dividend growth builds wealth. Purchasing high yield common stocks or preferreds will not build wealth. You have to have something that will generate price growth. Dividend increases drive price appreciation. Here are some examples: dg_vs_g_07.pdf

♣ Stock selection techniques make the Connolly Report unique. Over the last 30 years, to determine if a stock is value priced or expensive, three main stock valuation measures have evolved. 1. yield and yield difference (Charles Dow used yield) 2. variation from Graham's price (Ben Graham's 1949 book The Intelligent Investor C-7) 3. cyclically adjusted price to earnings (Shiller's C.A.P.E, not the forward p/e used in the industry). In a minute or two, any stock can be valued against averages for these three metrics to determine if the common stock being tested is expensive. As I key this in July 2013, for instance, Enbridge is very expensive because ENB's average yield is 75 basis point below its average, its Graham per cent difference is really negative ($44 vs $14) and ENB's cape is way above the average of the common stocks in my list. It's a simple, yet profitable, strategy, really.

♣ We have experience (since 1981), the discipline to stay on track and patience. We do a lot of waiting. We wait for the right price and once we buy we wait for the dividend to grow. And after a couple of decades, we have hundreds of thousands of extra dollars and a growing income to buffer us from the world's problems. Dividend growth investors do not have to eat into capital when we retire as mutual fund holders do.

♣ With dividend growth investing you do not have to be worried about your money lasting through a longer retirement. Two things. First, your income will be growing. Second, your capital will be growing as the dividends rise. With this strategy, you can spend some capital and still have way more than what you started with. We use some of the additional capital to buy a new car every now and then.

✔ Buy The Investment Zoo by Stephen Jarislowsky. Begin the process of change. Take control of your investments. Say goodbye to mutual funds fees. Send for a copy of the current Connolly Report. Your $10 bill to our daughter could mean early retirement for you: Denise Emanuel, 306 Kingswood Road, Toronto ON M4E 3N9

Example: Royal Bank could have been purchased in the mid-1970s for $1.89 a share (adjusted for four stock splits since then). With dividend growth, by 2007 the owner of those shares would be getting more in dividends from these RY shares than the price paid for them. Royal Bank's dividend is now $2.52 a share for a YIELD ON COST of 133%. And, and this is the kicker, a $26,000 initial investment in 1975 would have grown to $2.5 million. John Heinzl's Report on Business column of June 22 2013.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/cottage-versus-bank-shares-revisited/article12748927/


“The difference between an undervalued stock and an overvalued stock is really one of psychology, it's how investors feel about companies and as investors are more optimistic, they tend to overprice the stock.” Tim Bert of Cardinal Capital Management in Winnipeg. TC: For example, think of TransAlta and Dollarama. TA has a yield over 8% as I write this on August 18 2013 and Dollarama's yield is less than 1%. One's not popular just now, the other is. If you buy a popular stock, you over pay, usually, so your chances of doing well are lessened.

What a difference a 2% fee makes - Each dollar invested in the TSX 30 years ago would have grown to $13.94. That's an average annual return of 9.2% according to Norm Rothery's column in the ROB last month. However, if you invested by way of a mutual fund with a 2% annual fee, that $1 would only have grown to $7.94. “Yes, even that seemingly small fee would have chopped the long-term return almost in half”, Rothery says.


Ensign Energy Services (ESI) - If you bought Ensign Energy Services today (September 12 2013) at $18 with the 43¢ dividend your yield would be 2.43%.

¹ Prices and dividends adjusted for stock splits in 2006 (2:1) and in 2001 (3:1).