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about_us 2018/05/27 07:48 about_us 2018/10/04 09:04 current
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-The Connolly Report** (about dividend growth common stocks) has been published since 1981 by Thomas. P. Connolly, B.Com. ('64) toward the end of March, June, September and December. It's mostly on-line now inside this site...a blog some five pages a month plus data.+The Connolly Report** (about dividend growth common stocks) has been published since 1981 by Thomas. P. Connolly, B.Com ('64). The ideas about the strategy are on-line now inside dividendgrowth.ca  It is blog of a few pages a month plus links, special one page White Paper summaries now and then, and a lot of dividend growth data
 +This blog will continue well into 2019...maybe longer. Access is $50. Some ten years of blog, reports and dividend data are inside. You are paying for this and the strategy developed over thirty years of research and practice. The strategy of dividend growth investing could easily earn you a higher than market returns, in the area of 12% eventually, if properly executed. A lot depends upon the kind of person you are. A patient, disciplined person will succeed. If you seek promises of instant success, high yields and a list of stock recommendations, to put it bluntly, go somewhere else. We provide ideas and data: you decide. I follow the principles of the old masters: John M. Keynes, Ben Graham, Arnold Bernhard, Philip Fisher, Stephen Jarislowsky and Warren Buffett. Modern portfolio theory is rejected. We do not mention beta. Risk is not volatility and can't be diversified away. As intrinsic value grows, equities become less risky than bonds. In the main, dividend growth drives capital growth.
-We are open again for a few months for access for the rest of 2018 and well into 2019. Most likely, after 38 years, the blog will end in 2019. To hook you up for access Denise needs: +To hook you up for access our daughter Denise needs:
  * 1. A postal code for your initial password (caps and a space) and   * 1. A postal code for your initial password (caps and a space) and
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  * 2. An email address for automatic notification you when the access process is completed.   * 2. An email address for automatic notification you when the access process is completed.
-If by mail, please write "new" on the envelope so you get faster service. Renewals already have access. +If you are paying by cheque be sure to include your e-mail address so we can set up your access. 
- + * Folks who renewed or paid for 2018 are covered for 2019 also. 
-**Renewals** at $50 for 2018 can be handled either by:+   
 +New access and late 2018 renewals at $50 can be handled either by:
Denise Emanuel Denise Emanuel
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-Any current Connolly Report issue (a summary of blog from the previous two months) is available for a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender) from our Louise Connolly, 607 - 185 Ontario St., Kingston ON **K7L 2Y7**. +Any current Connolly Report issue (a summary of blog from the previous three months) is available for a $10 bill (cheques are not legal tender) from our Louise Connolly, 607 - 185 Ontario St., Kingston ON **K7L 2Y7**. The most recent printed report is September 2018 
 + 
 +White Page topics: 
 +  * Why dividend growth investors do not worry in a market sell-off 
 +  * To win we must disregard modern portfolio theory 
 +  * Why we do NOT want professional management of our money 
 +  * Why we achieve significantly better results than average 
 +  * Dividend growth investors think differently 
 +  * ETFs another view 
 +  * Yields speak as a valuation indicator 
 +  * Individual dividend growth portfolios outperform  
 +  * A dividend growth example/able from 1990 - BNS dividend, price, yield and p/e 
 +Many yield charts inside this site go back into the 1980s. Low yields signal expensiveness.  
 + 
 + ♣ While the market is still rather high, cull the couple in your portfolio that are not preforming like your best securities. ♦ Which stocks do we select? The companies with at least a decade of steadily growing earnings and dividends. An initial yield of 4% or so, remember, plus dividend growth of 8% or so (the average of our lists) gives us 12% . . . eventually. As best you can, forget about fluctuating prices. Realize your income and capital are growing behind the scene. 
 + 
 +DIVIDEND GROWTH INVESTING: 
 +  * first you have to know about it 
 +  * then understand its ramifications - as dividend grows, so does capital 
 +  * you must believe it works - evidence is provided 
 +  * temperament to hold as the magic is fulfilled - expect a 12% return: initial yield plus dividend growth 
 + 
 +  * You are not buying into modern portfolio theory. Unless you are very lucky, you cannot win by doing what other investors do. Dividend growth investors have to do things differently. 
 +__We do not want professional management of our money__. Why not?  
 +▪ Professionals are indoctrinated by modern portfolio theory  
 +2. ▪ Professionals are constrained by benchmarks: they cannot lag their peers. 
 +“ The measuring rod itself often causes trouble” Economist May 5 2018  
 +▪ Professionals are too active - “Trading is Hazardous to your Wealth” ▪ Professionals are short-term oriented. Value is in future cash flow. 
 +There’s client pressure – For instance, why don't I have more FAANGS in my portfolio?  
 +▪ Professionals have way too many securities in their portfolios. * ▪ Professionals buy at the wrong time (W. Buffett’s Forbes column, Aug 6 1979) 
 +The efficient market [hypothesis] isn't always...just usually. It's a big mistake. ▪ Professionals focus and measure too much on price. We want cash flow in retirement. ▪ Professionals lean toward equal weighting rather than owning more of the best firms. * 
 +Most professionals do not beat the market. 
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Here's another example. In 2005, Fortis shares split 4:1. We originally bought our first 500 Fortis shares in March of 1995 at $24.62 a share...some $12,300 in total. In the fall of 2005, ten years later (you have to be patient with this strategy), Fortis mailed us our new 1,500 share certificate (the 4:1 split). In total we now have 2,000 shares of Fortis. As I key this the price of FTS is close to $25...about what we paid for our 500 shares originally. Now our 2,000 shares are worth $25 times 2000 = $50,000. That's not all. In early 1996, I thought Fortis was still a good buy, so we added to our position with another 500 shares. They too are valued at $50,000. So, we have $100,000 in Fortis...just one stock in a portfolio of some 10 stocks. All, but one, have done the much same thing. We're not selling. This investment yields 9.4%. Work it out. Fortis' dividend after the split is 64¢ a share. We have 4000 shares now. Our annual income from the Fortis shares is 4000 times .64 = $ 2,560. That's about what we paid for our original 500 shares. In 2006, if Fortis increases its dividend again, and I expect it will (in 2005 the dividend increase was 12.5%) our income will go up too. Can you think of a better retirement asset? Here's another example. In 2005, Fortis shares split 4:1. We originally bought our first 500 Fortis shares in March of 1995 at $24.62 a share...some $12,300 in total. In the fall of 2005, ten years later (you have to be patient with this strategy), Fortis mailed us our new 1,500 share certificate (the 4:1 split). In total we now have 2,000 shares of Fortis. As I key this the price of FTS is close to $25...about what we paid for our 500 shares originally. Now our 2,000 shares are worth $25 times 2000 = $50,000. That's not all. In early 1996, I thought Fortis was still a good buy, so we added to our position with another 500 shares. They too are valued at $50,000. So, we have $100,000 in Fortis...just one stock in a portfolio of some 10 stocks. All, but one, have done the much same thing. We're not selling. This investment yields 9.4%. Work it out. Fortis' dividend after the split is 64¢ a share. We have 4000 shares now. Our annual income from the Fortis shares is 4000 times .64 = $ 2,560. That's about what we paid for our original 500 shares. In 2006, if Fortis increases its dividend again, and I expect it will (in 2005 the dividend increase was 12.5%) our income will go up too. Can you think of a better retirement asset?
-Financial planners (now calling themselves wealth managers) because they know little about stocks, sell most people mutual funds or ETFs. Then, when retirement comes, they recommend withdraws from the funds of 4% or 5% each year. Mutual funds are not noted for providing growing income, so retirees often begin eating into capital right away. When the market collapses, as it did in 2008, retirees worry they will not have sufficient capital to fund retirement.+Financial planners (now calling themselves wealth managers) because they know little about stocks, sell most people mutual funds or ETFs (high commissions). Then, when retirement comes, they recommend withdraws from the funds of 4% or 5% each year. Mutual funds are not noted for providing growing income, so retirees often begin eating into capital right away. When the market collapses, as it did in 2008, retirees worry they will not have sufficient capital to fund retirement.
I have no such worry. The dividend growth strategy does not depend upon capital appreciation. It counts on dividend growth. The common stocks I own begin with higher yields and, with annual dividend increases, as the examples above illustrate, the yields grow. When it comes to retirement, I live from the income. I don't need to count on the capital gains. Appreciation of the stock price, however, will occur, eventually, as the dividends increase. These gains are my retirement bonus...the extra trip each year or helping the kids with their mortgage payments. I have no such worry. The dividend growth strategy does not depend upon capital appreciation. It counts on dividend growth. The common stocks I own begin with higher yields and, with annual dividend increases, as the examples above illustrate, the yields grow. When it comes to retirement, I live from the income. I don't need to count on the capital gains. Appreciation of the stock price, however, will occur, eventually, as the dividends increase. These gains are my retirement bonus...the extra trip each year or helping the kids with their mortgage payments.
How dependable are the dividends, you ask? Well, I only buy stocks of companies which have solid earnings, electrical utilities, pipelines, banks, and food retailers mostly. And further, I want companies which have paid dividends for a least a decade, preferably more: 20 years is a good standard. Dividends are surer than capital gains. The idea of growing income is so simple. I don't understand why more folks don't do it. Think about these ideas. How dependable are the dividends, you ask? Well, I only buy stocks of companies which have solid earnings, electrical utilities, pipelines, banks, and food retailers mostly. And further, I want companies which have paid dividends for a least a decade, preferably more: 20 years is a good standard. Dividends are surer than capital gains. The idea of growing income is so simple. I don't understand why more folks don't do it. Think about these ideas.
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